Jaron CollisCore ConceptDerived from Italian 'risicare' - to dare. A choice under uncertain conditions (rather than fate).AttitudesSignificanceEffect of TimeUtilityAttitudesPeople assess risk differently. Key question: what extent does the past effect the future?ObjectiveSubjectiveObjectiveRisk can be assessed quantitatively, using past data as a guide to future occurencesSamplingData MiningSubjectiveRisk can be assessed qualitatively, using beliefs about the future. This is epistemological - not fully analysable due to the limits of human knowledge. SignificanceAn essential factor for market economies (compare with riskless Soviet economy). Risk management is vital given the interconnectedness of the modern world.Effect of TimeTime becomes most significant when decisions are irreversible Can be value in waiting Decisions tend to be biased by most recently arrived informationUtilityA means of evaluation based on perceived value Origins in 17th century philosophy Can be expressed as likelihood * consequences SamplingThe process of collecting data, wider sample = better accuracyData MiningThe use of data to justify decision making. Pioneered by 19th century scientist Lambert Quetelet.falsescience12002-06-17T22:23:02.436+01:002002-08-27T00:07:40.286+01:00history of risk